As the 2025 ATP season nears its thrilling conclusion, two men stand alone in the race to finish the year as the ATP World No. 1: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Both have scaled the tennis summit before, both have lifted multiple Grand Slam trophies this season- and now, only one can end the year as the best player in the world.
With just three major events remaining- Vienna, Paris, and the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin- the final battle for the top spot promises drama, pressure, and elite-level tennis.
Alcaraz Leads, Sinner Chasing
After Sinner’s retirement in the third round of the Shanghai Masters, the points gap between him and Alcaraz has grown significantly. As it stands:
- Carlos Alcaraz leads by 2,540 points in the PIF ATP Live Race to Turin
- Jannik Sinner can still earn up to 3,000 points from:
- Vienna (ATP 500)
- Paris Masters (ATP 1000)
- Nitto ATP Finals (ATP 1500, if undefeated)
- Alcaraz, scheduled for Paris and Turin, has a maximum of 2,500 points to gain and only 300 to defend.
In short: Sinner must be perfect- and Alcaraz must falter.
The Road Ahead
Erste Bank Open, Vienna (ATP 500)
- Sinner enters with no points to defend.
- Alcaraz is skipping the event.
- A title here would cut the gap to around 2,040 points- a small but critical first step.
Paris Masters (ATP 1000)
- Sinner again has no points to defend.
- Alcaraz has just 100 points to defend from last year.
- A deep run by either could define the battle heading into the ATP Finals.
Nitto ATP Finals, Turin (Max 1,500 Points)
- Sinner is defending the maximum 1,500 points after going undefeated in 2024.
- Alcaraz only has 200 points to defend, making this event a huge opportunity to widen his lead.
A title defense from Sinner is mandatory if he wants any chance of overtaking the Spaniard.
By the Numbers: 2025 Season Comparison
| Statistic | Carlos Alcaraz | Jannik Sinner |
| Live Race Points | 10,690 | 8,150 |
| Grand Slam Titles (2025) | 2 (US Open, RG) | 2 (Australian Open, Wimbledon) |
| 2025 Match Record | 67-7 | 43-6 |
| ATP Finals Titles | 0 | 1 (2024, undefeated) |
| Points Left to Gain | 2,500 | 3,000 |
The Narrative: More Than Just Rankings
Alcaraz has described 2025 as the “best season I’ve ever done so far”, and for good reason. After a rollercoaster 2024, the 22-year-old rebounded in spectacular form, clinching a sixth career Grand Slam title at the US Open by defeating Sinner in a final that will be remembered for years.
Sinner, on the other hand, began the year on fire, winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and held the No. 1 ranking for 65 consecutive weeks — the seventh-longest streak in ATP history. But injuries and key retirements, like in Shanghai, have made the end of the season a steep uphill climb.
The ATP Finals in Turin, played in front of a home Italian crowd, could be Sinner’s last stand — and possibly the most poetic of finales.
Also Read: Wuhan Open 2025: How Much Will Each Player Earn
Who Will Finish as Year-End No. 1?
While Sinner’s path is mathematically possible, Alcaraz is firmly in the driver’s seat. His current points lead, fewer events to play, and lower points to defend give him a comfortable margin. Unless the Spaniard suffers early exits in both Paris and Turin, Sinner will likely fall just short.
Most likely outcome: Carlos Alcaraz ends 2025 as World No. 1
Slim chance: Jannik Sinner must win Vienna, Paris, and go undefeated in Turin – and hope Alcaraz falters
This is a rivalry that defines an era- two champions pushing each other to new heights. Regardless of who ends the year at No. 1, the 2025 ATP season will be remembered as the peak of the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry, a golden age for men’s tennis.
