The Asian swing of the 2025 tennis season has begun and the battle for the year-end world number spot is heating up. Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1 in WTA has announced her withdrawal from the upcoming China Open in Beijing, citing an injury which she sustained during the US Open. This has marked a dramatic twist in the battle for the top spot.
“I am sad to announce my withdrawal from the China Open this year after sustaining a small injury after the US Open,” Sabalenka shared in a statement. “I am going to focus on being 100 percent healthy for the rest of the year.”
The Belarusian, who currently sits atop the rankings with 11,225 points, faces a threat to her top spot from World No. 2 Iga Swiatek, who now has a clear opportunity to close the gap in the rankings.
Sabalenka reached the quarterfinals in Beijing last year, meaning she will lose 215 ranking points by skipping this year’s tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek: The Numbers Game
Swiatek currently holds 7,933 points, trailing Sabalenka by just over 3,200 points in the official WTA rankings. However, in the Race to Riyadh- which reflects points earned in 2025 alone- the gap is much narrower, with Swiatek just 2,077 points behind.
Crucially, Swiatek did not compete in Beijing last year, so she has no points to defend. Any win in China will directly boost her total. And with Sabalenka out, the path has become clearer.
Swiatek is also competing this week at the WTA 500 event in Seoul, where a tournament victory would give her 500 points and a surge of momentum heading into the Asia swing.
If the Pole were to win both Seoul and Beijing, she would collect 1,500 points in total, closing the gap to just 600 points. That would set up a thrilling showdown in Wuhan, where Sabalenka is the defending champion and holds 1,000 precious points.
Scenario Breakdown
| Tournament | Sabalenka (Defending) | Swiatek (Defending) | Points at Stake |
| Seoul (WTA 500) | 0 pts | 0 pts | 500 pts (max) |
| Beijing (WTA 1000) | 215 pts (QF) | 0 pts | 1,000 pts (max) |
| Wuhan (WTA 1000) | 1,000 pts (Champion) | TBD | 1,000 pts (max) |
If Swiatek wins both Seoul and Beijing, she’d be at 9,433 points, just 1,792 points behind before Wuhan. A deep run there and an early loss from Sabalenka could flip the No.1 ranking.
Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka Vows To Dominate Nick Kyrgios In Battle Of The Sexes
Wuhan Becomes Crucial for Sabalenka
Analysts predict Sabalenka won’t play again until the Wuhan Open, the final major WTA event of the season. That decision, while cautious and medically sound, carries risk. A poor showing in Wuhan due to lingering injury or loss of rhythm- could see her lose the No.1 ranking for the first time since claiming it earlier this year.
For now, Sabalenka remains in control. But if Swiatek continues her strong form, the pressure will mount rapidly. With Swiatek having no major points to defend for the rest of the season, every round she advances counts. For Sabalenka, however, the next few weeks will be about damage control as she tries to stay healthy and preserve her lead.
