Jannik Sinner is looking for a three-peat milestone at the Melbourne Park even as the main draw to the Australian Open 2026 begings on January 18.
The world No. 2 arrives in Australia as the two-time defending champion, aiming to become just the second man in the Open Era, alongside Novak Djokovic, to win the Australian Open three years in a row.
Sinner’s campaign begins against Frenchman Hugo Gaston, a crafty left-hander whose variety can frustrate opponents but has so far proven ineffective against the Italian. Sinner leads their head-to-head 2–0 and should have little trouble navigating the opening round.
The second round offers a similarly manageable challenge, with either Australian James Duckworth or rising Croatian Dino Prizmic awaiting. Duckworth has troubled Sinner in the past, but all three of their meetings came back in 2021. Prizmic, meanwhile, would represent a first-time matchup on the biggest stage.
A potential third-round encounter with 28th seed Joao Fonseca shapes up as Sinner’s most intriguing test in the opening week. Fonseca’s explosive game and fearless mentality have marked him as one of the tour’s most exciting young talents. Still, experience heavily favors Sinner, who has shown time and again that best-of-five tennis brings out his greatest strengths.
In the fourth round, Karen Khachanov looms as the most likely obstacle. The 15th seed is a former Australian Open semifinalist and possesses the power to challenge anyone, but Sinner holds a commanding 4–1 head-to-head advantage and has consistently handled the Russian’s baseline game.
The quarterfinal lineup is expected to feature Ben Shelton, Casper Ruud, or Denis Shapovalov, yet even here the numbers lean decisively toward the defending champion. Sinner has dominated Shelton (8–1) and owns a spotless 4–0 record against Ruud. Shapovalov remains unpredictable, but his inconsistency has often undermined his undeniable talent.
Barring an upset, Sinner should reach the semifinals with plenty left in the tank- a critical factor at a physically demanding major like the Australian Open.
The semifinals could produce a blockbuster showdown with Novak Djokovic, the tournament’s most decorated champion. Djokovic, chasing history of his own as he seeks to become the oldest Grand Slam winner in the Open Era, remains a formidable force in Melbourne, where he has lifted the trophy ten times.
Yet recent history tells a different story. Sinner has beaten Djokovic in their last several high-stakes encounters and now leads the rivalry 6–4.
Should Sinner reach the final, the most anticipated scenario is a clash with world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz- the defining rivalry of the new generation. While Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 10–6, the Spaniard has yet to find his rhythm at the Australian Open, never advancing beyond the quarterfinals.
Other potential finalists include Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur, and Felix Auger-Aliassime, but history again favors Sinner. He is 13–0 against de Minaur and has consistently handled Auger-Aliassime in major matches.
Also Read: Australian Open 2026: Top Players, Schedule, Prize Money
Jannik Sinner’s Projected Pathway To Australian Open 2026 Final
First Round: Hugo Gaston
Second Round: James Duckworth/ Dino Prizmic
Third Round: Joao Fonseca (28)/Luca Nardi
Round of 16: Karen Khachanov (15)/ Luciano Darderi (22)/ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Quarterfinal: Ben Shelton (8)/ Casper Ruud (12)/ Denis Shapovalov (21)
Semifinal: Novak Djokovic (4)/ Lorenzo Musetti (5)/ Taylor Fritz (9)
Final: Carlos Alcaraz (1)/ Alexander Zverev (3)/Alex de Minaur (6)/ Felix Auger-Aliassime (7)
*Numbers within the brackets are seedings.
