The Australian Open final in women’s singles is set to be played between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina at the Rod Laver Arena on January 31.
Both players arrive without having dropped a set, a rare achievement that underlines just how dominant they have been over the past fortnight.
Aryna Sabalenka’s Melbourne Mastery
For Sabalenka, Melbourne has become home. The world No. 1 is contesting her fourth straight Australian Open final, a feat previously achieved in the Open Era only by legends such as Evonne Goolagong and Martina Hingis. With a tournament record of 34–6 and wins in 20 of her last 21 matches here, the Belarusian has turned Rod Laver Arena into her personal stage.
Her run to the final has been ruthless. Sabalenka brushed aside every challenge in straight sets, including a commanding semifinal victory over Elina Svitolina, showing the same blend of raw power, improved movement, and mental steel that has kept her at the top of the rankings. A victory on Saturday would hand her a third Australian Open title in four years, placing her alongside Martina Hingis and Martina Navratilova in the tournament’s modern history.
Elena Rybakina’s Resurgence
Standing in her way is a familiar and formidable opponent. Elena Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion, is back in a Grand Slam final for the third time- and once again, she looks ready for the biggest stage.
The Kazakhstani’s path to the final has been arguably the tougher of the two. She eliminated world No. 2 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals before surviving a tense semifinal against Jessica Pegula, holding her nerve in a dramatic tiebreak to close out the match. It was a reminder of Rybakina’s calm under pressure and her ability to rise when the stakes are highest.
After winning the WTA Finals late last season- where she defeated Sabalenka in straight sets- Rybakina arrived in Melbourne with serious momentum. She is chasing her first Australian Open title and a second Grand Slam crown, four years after her breakthrough at Wimbledon.
Head-to-Head: A Rivalry Built on Power
Saturday’s final marks the 15th meeting between the two, with Sabalenka holding a narrow 8–6 advantage overall. On hard courts, however, Rybakina edges the matchup 6–5, and she has won three of their four finals, including their most recent encounter at the WTA Finals.
It’s a rematch of the 2023 final where Sabalenka came from a set down to defeat Rybakina and claim her maiden Grand Slam title.
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Tactical Battle
Rybakina’s clean ball-striking and first-serve accuracy can overwhelm opponents, while Sabalenka counters with a superior return game, improved defensive coverage, and the ability to absorb and redirect pace.
The Verdict
Everything points toward a classic. Neither player has blinked so far, and both believe this surface brings out their best tennis. Rybakina has the weapons to hurt Sabalenka, especially if her serve fires early. But Sabalenka’s comfort in Melbourne, combined with her consistency and return game, may prove decisive once the rallies lengthen.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka edges a high-octane final in three sets.
