Jannik Sinner sits at the top of the ATP Rankings currently with 3,430 points ahead of Carlos Alcaraz. However, there is more than the numbers suggest. The story could very well be different following the North American hard-court swing.
Sinner is defending a massive 3,200 points through the US Open, while Alcaraz has just 60 points to defend in that stretch. In practical terms, this leaves the two virtually neck-and-neck in the battle for the No. 1 ranking once the US Open concludes. Whoever performs better over the next two months is likely to claim the top spot after the season’s final Grand Slam.
Last year, Alcaraz skipped the ATP Masters 1000 event in Canada and suffered early exits in both Cincinnati Open and the US Open, collecting only 50 points in New York. Meanwhile, Sinner reached the quarter-finals in Canada, then captured titles in both Ohio and New York.
Sinner recently struck another blow in his rivalry with Alcaraz by defeating him in the Wimbledon final, improving his ATP Head2Head record against the Spaniard to 5-8 and snapping a four-match losing streak. With Alcaraz now looking to bounce back, the North American tournaments in Cincinnati provide key opportunities to close the gap ahead of the US Open, where the No. 1 ranking could be on the line for the first time this summer.
Sinner, the first Italian to reach World No. 1, has held the top spot for 58 consecutive weeks- the fourth-longest debut stint in ATP Rankings history. Alcaraz, who became the youngest No. 1 following his 2022 US Open title, has spent 36 weeks at the summit in his career.
Following Wimbledon, Sinner holds a 26-3 record on the season, while Alcaraz is 48-6, according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index.
Also Read: Jannik Sinner’s Play Impacted By Taylor Fritz’s Match At Cincinnati Open
What must Carlos Alcaraz do to reclaim No. 1 spot?
In order to narrow the gap, Alcaraz will need to overcome the likes of Sinner, Rublev, Zverev, and Tiafoe to win upcoming titles. With 500 points to defend, a tournament win would help the Spaniard close the gap with Sinner- especially if the Italian stumbles — and put him within striking distance.
Sinner faces significant pressure to defend his 2,000 points at the US Open, where he is the reigning champion. In contrast, Alcaraz has the chance to make a major leap, having exited early last year. If the rankings race remains close heading into New York, a strong run at Flushing Meadows could allow Alcaraz to reclaim the No. 1 position and strengthen his push to end the year on top.
- Cincinnati is the biggest swing opportunity for Alcaraz -he can gain ~990 points.
- US Open is still the decider: Sinner is defending the full 2,000, while Alcaraz is defending just 50.
- If Alcaraz wins Cincinnati Open and makes US Open final, he’s very likely to either close the gap or become No. 1.
- Sinner must at least reach the US Open final and go deep in Cincinnati to maintain his ranking.
Scenarios After US Open
| Scenario | Sinner | Alcaraz | Who’s No. 1? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinner QF at USO (360 pts), loses early in Cincy | -1,640 net | ||
| Alcaraz wins Cincy + USO (3,000 pts) | +2,940 net | Alcaraz takes No. 1 | |
| Sinner reaches USO final (1,200 pts), SF in Cincy | -800 net | ||
| Alcaraz SF at USO (720 pts), wins Cincy (1,000) | +1,660 net | Very close- possible lead change | |
| Both reach USO final, Alcaraz wins | Alcaraz likely No. 1 by a small margin |
