Who Will Win The Rugby Championship 2025?
The Rugby Championship 2025 is heading towards a dramatic finish, with three teams still in the hunt for the trophy as the tournament enters its final weekend. Argentina are already out of contention, but South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia remain locked in a fierce race to claim southern hemisphere rugby’s biggest crown.
With the title still undecided, all eyes will be on Perth and London, where the final matches will decide who emerges as champions. The margins are so fine that bonus points, head-to-head records, and aggregate scores could all come into play. Here is a complete breakdown of what each team needs to secure the Rugby Championship.
Rugby Championship Rules Explained
Before looking at the contenders, it is important to understand how the standings are decided. Teams are awarded:
- 4 points for a win
- 2 points for a draw
- 1 bonus point for scoring 3 or more tries than the opponent
- 1 bonus point for losing by 7 points or fewer
If teams finish level on points, the following tie-breakers apply:
- Most wins in the series
- Head-to-head wins between tied teams
- Points difference across the series
- Points difference in head-to-head matches
- Most tries scored in the series
- If still tied, the title is shared
Chances of winning the Rugby Championship 2025
South Africa
South Africa currently lead the table with a one-point cushion over New Zealand and four points over Australia. Having won three of their five matches, the Springboks are the favourites heading into the last round.
Rassie Erasmus’ side face Argentina in London and will already know what is required of them after the Wallabies and All Blacks clash in Perth. A bonus point win would guarantee the title regardless of other results.
Even if New Zealand win with a bonus point, a simple victory for South Africa would be enough to lift the trophy. However, if Australia spring a surprise against the All Blacks, the Springboks must ensure they finish at least one league point ahead of the Wallabies.
South Africa win the title if:
- They beat Argentina with a bonus point, or
- They win any match while New Zealand fail to overtake them, or
- They secure enough points to stay ahead of Australia in case the Wallabies upset New Zealand.
New Zealand
The All Blacks are just one point behind South Africa, meaning their destiny depends not only on their own result but also on what happens in London.
New Zealand must defeat Australia in Perth, preferably with a bonus point, and then hope Argentina do them a favour by beating the Springboks. Unlike Australia, the All Blacks cannot afford to finish level on points with South Africa, as the Boks won their head-to-head series 60-34 on aggregate.
This means that a tie on points would hand the title to the Springboks. New Zealand’s path to the title is clear: win against Australia and hope South Africa lose without a bonus point.
New Zealand win the title if:
- They beat Australia, and
- South Africa lose to Argentina without securing enough league points.
Australia
The Wallabies are four points behind the Springboks but still have a mathematical chance to claim their first Rugby Championship since 2015. Joe Schmidt’s side face the All Blacks in Perth in a must-win clash.
For Australia to lift the trophy, they need to defeat New Zealand and hope Argentina upset South Africa. The Springboks must also fail to earn a losing bonus point. In this scenario, Australia would move to 16 points and edge South Africa by one.
Alternatively, a bonus point win against New Zealand combined with South Africa earning zero points against Argentina would also crown the Wallabies as champions. In the event of a tie on points with South Africa, Australia would come out on top thanks to their superior head-to-head aggregate (60-52).
Australia win the title if:
- They beat New Zealand and Argentina defeat South Africa without the Boks earning a bonus point, or
- They get a bonus point win over New Zealand and South Africa finish without any points.
Final Prediction: Who Will Win the Rugby Championship 2025?
While all three teams remain mathematically in the race, the odds heavily favour South Africa. With a one-point lead and a final game against Argentina, the Springboks only need a win to seal the title.
New Zealand’s hopes hinge on Argentina producing a major upset, while Australia require a perfect storm of results to fall in their favour. Given their form and position, the smart prediction is that South Africa will be crowned Rugby Championship winners for the first time in consecutive tournaments.
FAQs
Q1. Can Australia still win the Rugby Championship?
A. Yes, but they must beat New Zealand and hope Argentina defeat South Africa without the Boks gaining a bonus point.
Q2. What happens if South Africa and Australia finish level on points?
A. Australia would win, as they hold a better head-to-head aggregate score against the Springboks.
Q3. Why can’t New Zealand win if they finish level on points with South Africa?
A. Because the Springboks won the head-to-head series 60-34 on aggregate, giving them the advantage.
Q4. What do South Africa need to secure the title?
A. A bonus point win over Argentina guarantees the championship, but even a simple victory may be enough depending on other results.
Q5. When did Australia last win the Rugby Championship?
A. Australia last won the Rugby Championship in 2015.
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