Why Football Clubs Pay Too Much? The Most Over And Under-paid Players In Europe’s Big Leagues
In the modern football economy, huge salaries are the norm, especially in Europe’s top leagues. Yet a growing body of research suggests that many players are either wildly over-paid relative to their on-field output, or conversely under-paid despite delivering far more than their contract would imply.
This article takes a data-driven look at wage versus performance: what factors determine player pay, which players are the best and worst value, and what clubs might learn from the numbers.
1. How Player Wages Are Determined
A study analysing 6,082 players across eight European leagues found a strong correlation (Pearson ~0.77) between predicted salary (based on skills, age, performance) and actual salary. But the model also shows that non-sporting factors (popularity, marketing merchandise, branding) are not included, meaning wage disparities can arise for reasons beyond pure on-field performance.
Another study of club-level payroll efficiency found that the Premier League sat at the bottom of efficiency among Europe’s top leagues, meaning clubs there tend to pay more for given performance levels than in other leagues.
2. What “Over-paid” and “Under-paid” Really Mean
- “Over-paid”: a player whose contract/salary is significantly higher than what his performance suggests he should earn.
- “Under-paid”: a player earning much less than his output would justify.
For example, the computational model found that players defined as over-paid tend to be physically stronger, but had weaker metrics in vision, acceleration, agility, compared to under-paid players. - The challenge: exact salary and performance data are often private or partial; many assessments use proxies or models.
3. Notable Over-paid Cases in European Football
- An algorithmic study identified Lionel Messi as the world’s most over-paid player (at that time) when comparing his estimated deserved wage versus actual.
- The CIES Football Observatory noted that Manchester United had over-paid by around €238 million in transfer fees compared to estimated values.
- Clubs in the Premier League are noted to have lower payroll efficiency than other leagues, paying more relative to outcomes.
4. Notable Under-paid Players / Value Contracts
The same computational model found that under-paid players often had better agility, reaction, and balance than many over-paid peers. Example lists identify players in the Premier League who are significantly under-paid relative to their competitions, for instance, youth players earning low weekly wages despite starting regularly.
5. Why These Discrepancies Happen
- Market forces: popularity, transfer hype, branding can inflate wages beyond pure performance.
- Time lags: a player may have been signed or contracted when his future looked bright, then under-performed.
- Club salary structure: contracts often include guaranteed payments, bonuses, and legacy salaries for older players.
- Data limitations: performance metrics don’t always fully capture a player’s influence, leadership, off-ball movement, or defensive contributions.
- Efficiency varies by league: smaller leagues or clubs may achieve higher “value for money” than big clubs with huge wages.
6. What Clubs and Fans Can Learn
Clubs should incorporate performance-to-salary modelling to avoid overpaying. Transparent metrics and benchmarking across leagues help identify under-paid talent. Fans and analysts should consider not just raw salary or transfer fee, but value, output per euro spent. Especially for clubs outside the wealthiest layer, focusing on efficiency, paying well for performance rather than big names, may yield better sporting and financial outcomes.
FAQs
Q1. How reliable are studies on over- and under-paid players?
A1. They use broad data sets and modelling, but many variables such as marketing value or hidden contracts are not captured, so they’re indicative, not definitive.
Q2. Does “over-paid” mean the player is bad?
A2. Not necessarily. A player may still perform well, but his salary may be disproportionately high compared to what his performance warrants.
Q3. Are under-paid players always young or from smaller clubs?
A3. Often yes, but not always. Some experienced players deliver strong numbers yet are on contracts that reflect previous value or club cost constraints.
Q4. How can a club improve its payroll efficiency?
A4. By using performance-based metrics, benchmarking salaries by position and league, and avoiding inflated contracts driven solely by marketing or popularity.
Q5. Will the wage-performance gap close in future?
A5. Better data analytics and financial controls may push clubs towards more efficient contracts but market hype and branding will likely continue to create gaps.
