The hype for The Ashes 2025/26 has already begun well before a ball is bowled. Stuart Broad boldly labelled this Australian side as “the weakest since 2010” on his BBC podcast, contrasting them with what he calls the strongest England team to tour Australia in over a decade. Meanwhile, Steven Smith has downplayed the potential impact of Bazball on Australian soil.
But how much do team compositions matter in a rivalry as unpredictable as the Ashes? History has repeatedly suggested that numbers often lie.
In 2005, despite Australia’s massive experience advantage, England scripted a legendary upset. Now, after a painful 13 defeats in their last 15 Tests Down Under, England seek their first away Ashes victory since 2010/11. Can they turn the tide in the Ashes 2025/26? Here are the decisive factors that could shape the series.
Consistency, Squad Stability, and Fitness Concerns
A settled lineup has historically been a decisive advantage in Ashes contests. Australia famously fielded the same XI in all five Tests during the 2013/14 5-0 sweep, the first time since 1893 that a team used the same XI throughout an Ashes series. England, meanwhile, used just 12 players in the 2005 thriller.
This time, though, Australia enter the Ashes 2025/26 with significant early setbacks. Both Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood are expected to miss the series opener, prompting an uncharacteristic reshuffle in their seam attack.
Brendan Doggett is likely to debut, becoming Australia’s first specialist fast-bowling Test debutant since Scott Boland in 2021, while Jake Weatherald’s inclusion could herald a new-look opening partnership – another relative rarity in modern Australian Ashes squads.
England have their own sets of problems. The fitness of Jofra Archer and Mark Wood will be under the microscope, more so because of Archer’s absence from the last two Ashes cycles. A lot of hopes will once again lie with Ben Stokes, whose all-round brilliance could turn key moments, provided he can last the series.
Why the Series Opener Is Important
Poor starts have haunted England for decades. At home, Australia have dominated opening Ashes Tests since World War II, holding a 12-2 lead with six draws. England hasn’t won an away Ashes opener since 1986/87 and hasn’t won the first Test of any Ashes series – home or away – since 2010/11.
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But fresh optimism has reigned in the Bazball era. Under Stokes and head coach Brendon McCullum, England have won nine of their 11 series openers, including all five away from home. This new mindset may prove vital in the high-pressure atmosphere of the Ashes 2025/26.
Opening Partnerships: The Battle Begins at the Top
A good start upfront often sets the tone for the series. Over the last three Ashes series in Australia, the hosts’ openers averaged 40.34-nearly double England’s 21.58. The best opening duo to tour Down Under in recent memory remains Cook and Strauss, whose 78.42 average in 2010/11 was integral to their triumph.
Today, Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett bring in hope. They are already among the top-five opening partnerships for England by aggregate, scoring 2511 runs at 46.50. No Test-opening pair has scored more runs around the world since Duckett’s return in 2022.
Usman Khawaja’s form for Australia has fallen off a cliff since 2024, averaging 31.28-and only 23.85 if his Galle double-ton is excluded-troubled repeatedly by right-arm quicks exploiting the angle from around the wicket.
Bazball’s Greatest Test: Will the Aggression Hold Up?
England’s aggressive “Bazball” revolution transformed their batting fortunes between the 2021/22 and 2023 Ashes series. In 2023, England’s top-seven averaged 41.57 at a strike rate of 75-nearly doubling their 2021/22 numbers. Australia’s batting, by contrast, remained consistent across both series.
In this Bazball era, the attacking-shot percentage of England has gone as high as 44.2%, while the rest of the world remains at 31.6%. But can that translate into success on Australian pitches?
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One of the biggest indicators lies in the performances of England against Scott Boland.
In 2021/22, Boland ripped through England with 18 wickets at 9.55, while in 2023, the Bazball offensive forced his average against England to balloon to 113. If Cummins and Hazlewood miss early Tests in the Ashes 2025/26, Boland becomes Australia’s most vital weapon.
The Premier Duel: Steve Smith vs Joe Root
The Ashes 2025/26 will again focus all attention on two modern legends.
Steve Smith
Needs just 220 runs and another hundred to move past Jack Hobbs and sit behind only Don Bradman on the all-time Ashes charts.
Has dominated the Ashes with 3417 runs at 56.01 and including 12 hundreds.
Joe Root
Has been in sublime form ever since 2022, scoring 5720 runs at 56.63 with 22 hundreds.
He has nine fifties, yet still awaits his first century on Australian soil.
Smith is at his best in home conditions, averaging 54.5 in Australia, while Root’s 35.68 average Down Under remains an obvious gulf he must close.
Key On-Field Matchups That Could Decide the Ashes 2025/26
1. Smith vs Jofra Archer and Mark Wood
Archer famously rattled Smith at Lord’s in 2019, though he is yet to dismiss him. Wood, however, has dismissed Smith four times, often from wide-of-the-crease angles that trouble the Australian.
2. Khawaja vs Wood
Khawaja’s vulnerability against right-arm quicks makes Wood’s pace an important factor. Wood has removed him three times in eight innings, twice from around the wicket.
3. Root vs Cummins
Hazlewood and Boland Historically, Root has struggled against Australia’s big three right-arm quicks, who have collectively dismissed him 25 times in the Ashes. Length deliveries in the off-stump channel remain his biggest challenge.
4. Stokes vs Lyon
One of the most compelling Ashes subplots is that between Nathan Lyon and Ben Stokes. Stokes often goes at Lyon hard, with a strike rate against him of 163.02 since becoming captain. Given that the offspinner is back from injury, this could just become a vital Ashes battle in 2025/26.
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