The FIFA Club World Cup 2025 is heating up, and the prediction machines have spoken. According to OptaAnalyst, French champions Paris Saint-Germain are currently leading the pack with a 21% chance of lifting the trophy.
Yes, PSG. The same club that just got sued by Kylian Mbappe for moral harassment is now top of the mountain in the probability charts. Football is wild.
Here’s how the rest of the contenders stack up:
Man City sit at 17%. The Premier League Giants may not have been at their best this season but after some winter and summer signings, Pep’s men are back at their best and have a good chance to take the first silverware home for the season.
Inter Milan sneak into third with 15%, riding high after playing the Champions league final this season against PSG, although their manager has left them but still the squad is good enough to give every team a run for their money.
Bayern Munich and Chelsea are both given an 11% chance. Bayern have been the same throughout the season, as they have beaten the minnows without any remorse but have failed to manage wins against the heavyweights. After defeating Auckland City 10-0, they conceded defeat to Benfica with a 1-0 scoreline. Chelsea’s chances also look slim although the run to semi-finals look easy, it will all depend on Maresca’s tactics and form of certain players.
Real Madrid, weirdly, are down at 8%. Maybe the Opta bots have relied on the history of the 2 Club World Cup matches but Kylian Mbappe will be back for the knockout stages of the tournament and will be a useful addition to Xabi’s ball.
Borussia Dortmund and Benfica both sit at 5%, while Juventus limp in at 4%, possibly weighed down by flashbacks of that midfield.
And then we reach the Brazilian brigade.
Despite having all four clubs in the knockouts, Palmeiras (1%), Botafogo (0.5%), and Flamengo (0.4%) are apparently just along for the ride. But as history often reminds us, South American clubs thrive when underestimated.
Sure, the smart money’s on PSG or Man City. But the Club World Cup isn’t just about favourites. It’s about chaos, comebacks, and underdogs stealing the show. Don’t be surprised if one of the Brazilian sides dances their way deep into the tournament.
Because when it comes to football math, sometimes the vibes beat the stats.
