Get ready for another breathtaking edition of the Tour de France, where, beyond the usual suspects vying for the yellow jersey, a handful of dark horses could steal the spotlight and rewrite expectations. These are the riders who might not be the headline favorites, but have the form, opportunity, and tactical savvy to shake up the race in a big way this July.
1. Oscar Onley: Scotland’s Rising Strategist
Oscar Onley’s breakout performance at last year’s Tour de France was anything but accidental. Finishing inside the top five overall and within touching distance of the podium, the young Scot demonstrated maturity well beyond his years, especially in high-mountain stages and long alpine sequences. His move to Ineos Grenadiers for 2026 places him in one of the most tactically sophisticated teams in the peloton, offering stronger mountain support and Grand Tour de France know-how. With steady time-trial improvements and a calm racing brain, Onley could quietly remain in GC contention while others crack under pressure.
2. Matteo Jorgenson: American All-Terrain Threat
Matteo Jorgenson has steadily built a reputation as one of the peloton’s most reliable all-terrain cyclers. Strong showings at Paris-Nice and the Critérium du Dauphiné underline his consistency, while last year’s eighth-place finish at the Tour proves he can survive the full three-week grind. His ability to time trial, climb efficiently, and read race situations gives him multiple avenues to success. Whether slipping into a dangerous breakaway or capitalising on tactical stalemates among GC favourites, Jorgenson is perfectly positioned to outperform expectations.
3. Kévin Vauquelin: Breakaway Specialist With Punch
Few cyclists captured the imagination of French fans last July like Kévin Vauquelin. His solo stage win and stint in the white jersey showcased a rider unafraid to race aggressively on home soil. That momentum carried into 2025, where he impressed by holding the overall lead at the Tour de Suisse deep into the race. Vauquelin’s blend of punchy climbing, solid time-trialling, and fearless attacking makes him a constant threat on medium-mountain and transitional stages. In a Tour that often rewards initiative, he could again animate the race.
4. Einer Rubio: Colombian Climber With a Free Role
Einer Rubio’s top-10 finish at the Giro d’Italia confirmed his status as a dependable Grand Tour climber with sharp instincts in the high mountains. While his primary role may involve supporting a team leader, the Tour has a way of opening doors unexpectedly. If given freedom on select stages, Rubio’s endurance and altitude-honed climbing ability make him a prime candidate for mountain breakaways. With a previous Grand Tour stage victory already on his résumé, he knows how to seize opportunity when it appears.
5. Ben Healy: The Rogue Irishman Ready to Attack
Ben Healy’s attacking display in last year’s Tour de France remains one of the race’s defining moments. His long-range solo victory was a masterclass in commitment and raw power, underlining why he is one of the peloton’s most unpredictable riders. Healy thrives when stages are chaotic and control slips away from the sprinters and GC teams. On rolling terrain and explosive uphill finishes, his willingness to attack early makes him a nightmare to mark and a prime contender for repeat stage success.
These riders add intrigue and unpredictability to the Tour de France, proving that the race is as much about timing and courage as it is about pedigree. With brutal mountain ranges, technical time trials, and ever-changing conditions, the 2026 Tour is fertile ground for surprise performances. If history is any guide, at least one of these dark horses will emerge as a defining figure of July.
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