Which Method is Used in the Indian Premier League?

In a limited-overs cricket match that is delayed by bad weather or other events, the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method (DLS) is a mathematical formula used to determine the goal score (number of runs required to win) for the team batting second.

In a limited-overs cricket match that is delayed by bad weather or other events, the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method (DLS) is a mathematical formula used to determine the goal score (number of runs required to win) for the team batting second. The Duckworth-Lewis approach (D/L) was developed by two English statisticians, Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis (not to be confused with former cricketer Tony Lewis). It was first presented in 1997, and the ICC formally adopted it in 1999. Duckworth and Lewis retired, and Professor Steven Stern took over as the system’s custodian. In November 2014, the approach was given its present name.

In uninterrupted cricket matches, the desired score is one runs more than the total runs recorded by the team that batted initially. Setting an adjusted target for the team batting second when overs are lost is more complicated than simply lowering the run target in proportion to the number of overs lost because, for example, a team with ten wickets in hand and 25 overs to bat can play more aggressively than if they had ten wickets and 50 overs to bat, leading to a higher run rate. The DLS technique makes an effort to determine a statistically fair target for the second team’s innings that has the same degree of difficulty as the initial target. In a limited-overs game, each team has two resources—overs left to play and remaining wickets—that they can use to score runs. The objective is modified proportionally to the change in the two resources taken together.

How does one employ the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern Method?

The DLS Method is based on the following simple equation:

The number of runs required by the side batting second to tie the game is known as the par score. For instance, during an IPL 2016 match between Rising Pune Supergiants and the Kolkata Knight Riders, rain caused the game to be called after the 18th over of Rising Pune Supergiants’ innings, limiting Kolkata Knight Riders’ innings to just 9 overs. Their objective was thus lowered to 66. This surpasses the aim of 61, which would have been attained with the “Standard Edition” by a small margin.

The Duckworth-Lewis-Stern Method: How Effective Is It?

When we examine the dataset of more than 6000 Twenty-20 games played between 2003 and 2017, we can find a fairly even distribution of games won by teams batting first and teams fielding first. This is true even for games that had to employ the DLS system because they were rained out.

However, the divide is drastically different when we only include the games played in the Indian Premier League between 2008 and 2018. When we look at the games where the DLS method was used, the team fielding first alarmingly won 74% of the time. This contrasts with the games played under normal conditions where teams batting first or second grabbed the prizes more or less evenly. The fact that this divide exists does indicate a systemic problem in the DLS technique, which fails to account for the explosiveness and fast-shifting character of a T20 game, even though this is based on a small sample size of just 19 games.

The average score in a 50-over game utilized in developing the original Duckworth-Lewis Method was 245. In terms of average runs scored per over, this run rate is 4.90. The average number of runs scored in the first innings in Indian Premier League games is 162.11, corresponding to an 8.11 run rate. This is far greater than the average when Duckworth and Lewis developed their approach. This lends some credence to the claim that the amount of remaining overs is a resource that is substantially more valuable in a T20 game than it is in its 50-over cousin. The boxplot below demonstrates how high T20 game scores can rise.

What can be done, then?

Although the DLS Method is undoubtedly an improvement over its forerunners, this does not excuse its flaws. Building a system that integrates batters’ strike rates, bowlers’ economy, and averages are becoming more practical, given the amount of data being tracked. Utilizing the multitude of statistical tools and the abundance of player-and-match data seems logical, at least at the game’s highest level. Even though the system would become even less transparent and harder to grasp due to this, the stakes are so great that it is worth a shot. Since the outcome of a cricket match might change in the space of a few deliveries, it is nearly impossible to account for every possible circumstance. That does not preclude improvements to the current system, though. While an overhaul is required, all you can do for the time being is watch your favourite team’s upcoming game and pray that the rain gods are on your side.

Also Read: IPL: Rohit Sharma gave me sleepless nights as KKR captain, reveals Gambhir (sportsdigest.in)

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